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Set aside your political ideology for a moment. Yes, that’s almost impossible to do in the current political climate, but the argument I’m about to make is mathematical.
As Bill Clinton would say, “It’s arithmetic.”
Hillary Clinton will likely win the 2016 election and become our nation’s 45th president, and it’s all about basic electoral math.
In each of the last six presidential elections, including the John Kerry loss of ’04, the same group of 18 states and Washington D.C. fell into the Democratic column pretty much by default, leaving Republicans with the unenviable task of having to sweep the remaining toss-up states in order to win.
Yes, George W. Bush ran the gamut — by razor-thin margins, I might add — in swing states in the 2004 election, but that was before we began to see a consistent leftward shift in places like Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, and even Ohio and Iowa, whichBarack Obama had no trouble putting away in two consecutive elections.
If we’re mindful of recent history, it’s probably safe to say that Mrs. Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will start 2016 with that same 18-state (and D.C.) cushion the Democrats have enjoyed for more than two decades.
In other words, Clinton can already count on 242 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to become the nation’s first female president — and there has been no seismic shift toward Republicans during the Obama years that suggests otherwise.
In fact, if anything has changed over the course of the past two presidential elections, it’s that more states have been put in play for the Democrats, only reinforcing their “blue wall” and making it more daunting for the GOP to compete in those all-important swing states.
In the six previous elections, Republicans have only been able to bank on 13 states, totaling 102 electoral votes. And, while they like to talk about snagging a blue state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, they haven’t really even come close.
In a recent Marquette poll, Clinton leads Wisconsin Governor — and 2016 probable — Scott Walker by double digits in his own state.
The GOP’s race-to-the-right primary season, combined with an economy that is significantly better and demographics that continue to trend toward Democrats, is only icing on the electoral cake for the former Secretary of State.
Barring a horrible campaign or major scandal — all of which are possible when it comes to Hillary Clinton — she will be elected the 45th president of the United States.
It’s all in the arithmetic.
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